Monte Carlo Risk Review Workspace
Start with trading assumptions, review randomized capital paths, and compare drawdown or streak risk before treating any result as useful.
Use the tools to compare assumptions and understand ranges. They are not trading signals, financial advice, or guarantees of future results.
Capital values are calculated as unitless numbers.
Monte Carlo simulation uses random paths, so the result may change slightly each time even with the same inputs.
The chart shows actual simulated paths for the average, best, and worst scenarios. The average scenario is the path closest to the middle final capital, not a point-by-point average path. When the trade count is large, the chart is compressed to a maximum of 1,000 points.
If the best scenario rises too sharply, other lines may look compressed. In that case, check the average, best, and worst scenarios separately.
Each tool is built for educational analysis: enter assumptions, review the calculation basis, and compare outputs before making your own decision elsewhere.
Flagship scenario tool
Runs random trading paths from win rate, risk/reward, loss size, fees, trade count, and starting capital. It helps traders and learners explore uncertainty, drawdown, and outcome ranges rather than predict a single result.
Limitation: simulations depend entirely on user inputs and simplified assumptions.
Review Monte Carlo inputsGrowth path
Estimates how a starting amount may grow across repeated compounding periods and compares simple versus compound growth.
Limitation: projected growth is mathematical only and is not a guaranteed return.
Open Compound CalculatorReference FX
Converts between major currencies using reference exchange-rate data and a transparent conversion formula.
Limitation: actual bank, card, broker, or exchange-office rates may differ.
Open Currency ConverterMarket references
Shows reference prices for WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, natural gas, gold, and silver, with currency conversion for quick checks.
Limitation: commodity data can be delayed, and the latest data date can differ by asset.
Open Commodity PricesThe site focuses on transparent calculations, educational use, and reference data. You can adjust assumptions, compare paths or conversions, and use the output as a starting point for your own research.
Exchange-rate and commodity data can be delayed or unavailable. Commodity latest dates can differ by asset, so verify important prices with an official exchange, broker, bank, or other primary source before real transactions.
Trading Analysis Lab does not provide financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Results depend on user inputs, market-data availability, and simplified formulas; no tool on this site guarantees future performance.
Monte Carlo analysis guide
Monte Carlo analysis helps you inspect how the same trading assumptions can produce different paths when wins and losses arrive in different orders. It is most useful when you compare the downside path, drawdown, and losing streaks before focusing on the average result.
The calculator runs random trade paths from win rate, reward/risk ratio, loss per trade, fee, trade count, and starting capital. The result is a range of possible outcomes from your inputs.
Enter conservative assumptions, run the simulation, then rerun with lower win rate, higher fees, or smaller risk size to see which input changes matter most.
Each path samples wins and losses from the win-rate assumption and applies the gain, loss, and fee to current capital for the selected number of trades.
A hypothetical setup with 10,000 starting capital, 48% win rate, 1:1.8 reward/risk, 1% loss per trade, 0.05% fee, and 150 trades can still show a difficult drawdown if losses cluster early.
Final capital is only one summary. Maximum drawdown shows the largest peak-to-trough decline, and longest losing streak shows how much sequence risk the assumptions may require you to tolerate.
The tool includes the visible fee input but does not fully model slippage, spread changes, taxes, liquidity, partial fills, margin rules, or changes in strategy quality.
Responsible use: Use the simulation to compare assumptions and stress cases. It is educational analysis only, not trading advice or a promise of future performance.
This calculator is an educational simulation tool. Results do not guarantee actual investment returns, and all investment decisions are your responsibility.
